Hipótese e Métricas: O Início do experimento
Formular uma hipótese é o ponto de partida. No caso, testaremos se a redução no valor da entrega da Shopee Essencial impacta positivamente nas vendas. Especificamente, a hipótese central é: ‘Reduzir o valor da entrega em 20% expandirá o número de pedidos em 10%’. Para validar essa hipótese, definimos métricas claras de sucesso. As principais são: taxa de conversão (pedidos/visitas), valor médio do pedido e receita total.
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Um exemplo prático: imagine que, atualmente, a taxa de conversão seja de 2%. O propósito é elevar essa taxa para 2.2% com a redução no valor da entrega. Outro aspecto relevante é o valor médio do pedido. Se ele se mantiver estável ou expandir, o experimento será considerado bem-sucedido. Recursos necessários incluem a plataforma da Shopee para realizar o experimento A/B, ferramentas de análise de informações (Google Analytics) e equipe para monitorar os resultados.
Grupos de Controle e Experimental: A Comparação Essencial
A jornada de um experimento bem-sucedido reside na comparação. Para realizar um experimento A/B eficaz, precisamos de dois grupos distintos: o grupo de controle e o grupo experimental. O grupo de controle continua com o valor de entrega atual, servindo como a linha de base. Já o grupo experimental terá o valor de entrega reduzido em 20%. A alocação dos usuários para cada grupo deve ser aleatória para evitar vieses. Pense nisso como plantar sementes em terrenos diferentes, observando qual deles floresce mais.
É fundamental compreender que a aleatoriedade garante que as diferenças nos resultados sejam atribuídas à mudança no valor da entrega, e não a outros fatores. Suponha que tenhamos 10.000 usuários. 5.000 serão designados aleatoriamente para o grupo de controle, enquanto os outros 5.000 farão parte do grupo experimental. Esta divisão equitativa assegura uma análise comparativa robusta e confiável dos informações coletados.
Duração e Implementação: O Tempo é Essencial
A duração do experimento é crucial. Definimos um prazo de quatro semanas, justificando essa escolha com base no ciclo de compra típico dos produtos da Shopee Essencial. Um período mais curto poderia não capturar variações sazonais ou outros fatores externos. Durante essas quatro semanas, monitoraremos de perto as métricas definidas. Um exemplo: se observarmos uma queda drástica nas vendas no grupo experimental na primeira semana, poderemos pausar o experimento e investigar a causa.
Para executar o experimento, utilizaremos a funcionalidade de experimento A/B da plataforma Shopee, que permite direcionar aleatoriamente os usuários para diferentes versões da página de checkout. Recursos necessários incluem acesso à plataforma, configuração do experimento e acompanhamento diário dos resultados. Após as quatro semanas, analisaremos os informações para determinar se a redução no valor da entrega teve um impacto positivo nas vendas. O experimento demonstra se a mudança foi benéfica ou não.
